Washington – A new economic analysis released today by the CCIA Research Center warns that California Assembly Bill 1776 (AB 1776), known as the COMPETE Act, could impose sweeping economic harm on the state, putting jobs, investment, tax revenue, and the innovation economy at significant risk.
The analysis finds that AB 1776 could reduce California’s GDP by nearly 1.6% in its first year alone, equating to approximately $67 billion in lost economic output and 180,000 fewer full-time equivalent jobs.
Over time, those impacts are projected to compound dramatically. By year ten, the analysis estimates that AB 1776 could result in a loss of roughly $1 trillion in GDP and 1.6 million jobs compared to a baseline scenario without the legislation.
Introduced in February 2026 by Assembly Majority Leader Cecilia Aguiar-Curry and amended in March, AB 1776 is expected to be heard in committee on April 7. The legislation would significantly expand California’s antitrust framework by:
- Extending liability to single-firm conduct
- Decoupling state antitrust enforcement from established federal precedent
- Prohibiting cross-market balancing of competitive effects
- Eliminating any market-power threshold for enforcement
As California grapples with a $35 billion structural deficit, AB 1776’s litigation and cost-drivers could push away and shrink the innovation economy that drives billions in state revenue, including $10 billion in annual withholding from stock-related compensation alone.
The following quote may be attributed to the study’s author, Trevor Wagener, who serves as CCIA’s Chief Economist and Director of the CCIA Research Center:
“California’s global leadership in innovation took decades to build. The state’s COMPETE Act could devastate it overnight. Rushing the legislation forward creates broad uncertainty and litigation risk that jeopardizes $1 trillion in GDP, 1.6 million jobs, and tens of billions in tax revenue over the next decade.”
