From May 19-21, thousands of commercial space professionals gathered in Washington, D.C. for the ASCEND conference and the Commercial Space Policy Summit. The event brought together engineers, policymakers, regulators, executives, and other commercial space enthusiasts to discuss the latest developments and opportunities in the space industry. The following are some of the most significant trends in the space industry that are expected to shape the policy landscape over the coming years.
Launch Access
To kick off the event, the Commercial Space Federation released their report on space launch capacity in the U.S. It highlighted the growing gap between the demand and the U.S launch industry’s ability to meet said demand, finding that in the most extreme forecast the U.S. would need to host approximately 7,000 launches a year (compared to the ~180 hosted last year).
The report went on to list several possible policy actions that the federal government could take to help alleviate the growing launch gap, such as upgrades to spaceport infrastructure, improved airspace management, and a centralized coordinating authority at federal ranges. The report agrees with some of the findings in CCIA’s launch report as well as others in the industry who have voiced concerns about the launch capacity challenges, which could become a debilitating bottleneck for the U.S. space industry at the same moment that international competitors, such as China, are rapidly expanding their own capabilities.
Satellite Connectivity
Satellite-based broadband and direct-to-device (D2D) services are some of the fastest-growing markets in commercial space. The D2D market in particular shows great potential, with NovaSpace estimating over $70B in revenue over the next ten years as technology improves and adoption expands. Currently, D2D services are limited to emergency signals, text, voice, and basic data, but experts predict 5G-level data services from space will be widely available by the end of the decade. There are over 8 billion mobile subscribers globally, many of whom live in areas with poor cell tower coverage, showcasing the need for additional network access from space. The key challenges for satellite connectivity companies will be securing the spectrum access needed to meet this demand, which will require innovation-friendly updates to national and international regulations and partnerships with existing network providers.
Space-Based Cloud and AI
Space-based data centers (SBDCs) are gaining popularity as the costs and regulatory challenges for terrestrial data centers grow while launch costs drop. The advent of super-heavy launch vehicles will likely push the business case for data centers in space, although significant challenges remain with managing the high thermal loads through radiative cooling. Many companies and investors have bet heavily on the upside of SBDCs, proposing conceptual constellations as large as a million satellites. It is likely the first generation of SBDCs will be limited to edge based AI capabilities such as the processing of remote sensing data and automated operations in deep space. The limited downlink capacity from space and the high latency of space operations will necessitate the use of AI to ensure that key information is conveyed efficiently, and that space missions can operate without unnecessary delays from waiting for instructions from the ground. From the policy perspective, these proposals introduce complex questions around space safety, mission authorization, and the interplay with AI policies and regulations.
Energy Needs
A major challenge for SBDCs and energy intensive space operations is power. This is particularly a concern for operations on the lunar surface, which face the daunting task of surviving the two-week long lunar nights. Multiple companies have offered different solutions to this exact problem, ranging from collecting and beaming solar energy to solar arrays that lack direct access to sunlight to using nuclear energy to power space operations. While these technologies have been demonstrated before, building space-based energy operations at scale presents a host of technical and policy challenges. Nuclear energy in space is particularly challenging due to the immense regulatory scrutiny of conventional nuclear technology mixed with the regulatory uncertainty around novel space activities and geopolitical challenges around nuclear activities.That said, the upside for solar and nuclear energy solutions for space operations has driven tremendous investment and innovation into the sector, which should help bring these technologies to market sooner rather than later.
Space Safety
The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), Amazon Leo, Eutelsat, Iridium Communications, Inc., and SpaceX released their joint guide for orbital safety best practices. As the number of satellites in orbit continues to grow, so does the risk of a catastrophic collision. At the base level, a debris strike on an active satellite would be costly to the operating company or agency, but it would most likely be insured against such an event. The real threat is that the collision would then generate more debris that could threaten even more satellites, and that risk is compounded in high-demand orbital bands. That, in turn, could lead to severe downstream costs. A lost weather satellite can lead to cities being unprepared for major hurricanes, a gap in satellite connectivity could keep rural communities from being able to participate in the global digital economy, and a lost military satellite could expose a major vulnerability to our national security. In the worst-case scenario, a runaway series of debris-generating events could render low Earth orbit totally inoperable. This is why several leaders in the satellite industry banded together to create this third edition best practices guide, which includes suggestions such as pre-launch coordination and collision avoidance analysis, updated guidelines on data sharing, and recommendations on incorporating orbital safety into the design phase of craft.
The View From Capitol Hill
Throughout the week, influential leaders and staff from Congress spoke about their key policy priorities. From their perspective, the top priority was to pass the NASA Reauthorization bill. Different versions of the bill have been introduced in both the House and Senate, and the differences will need to be cleared through the conferencing process. Following that, the Congressional policymakers seemed focused on a Mission Authorization bill which would formalize the process for regulating novel space activities. The bill will likely delegate authority to the Office of Space Commerce, which is currently formulating a voluntary, light-touch certification framework for novel space activities.
Congress is also preparing to take action on the aforementioned launch capacity gap. Last year, Chairman Babin and Ranking Member Lofgren of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee sent a letter to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) requesting a report on the Part 450 launch licensing regime. Once the report becomes available, it is likely that the Committee will take action to address any issues that prevent the licensing process from being implemented effectively and efficiently.
CCIA’s Space & Spectrum Policy Center is dedicated to leading the conversation on key space issues, from tackling the U.S. launch capacity crunch and securing spectrum for satellite internet to setting up smart frameworks for orbital safety and AI. We will continue to champion sensible policies to encourage new deployment and competition in satellite connectivity.
